FOY and Hutch

Today they get serious. In the coming weeks they will really start to sort themselves out.

To Honor And Serve is the early second choice for the Derby and really looks to be the real goods. He may be a tad short today but I think he will still have enough to prevail.

Soldat hasn't hit a fast dirt track yet so it's a little up in the air with him. I always believed that a horse of derby quality should be able to run on anything.

Gourmet Dinner is getting a jock change which usually happens when the horse is hitting serious company. Last Monday they switched to RD on J P's Gusto and what happened, he got boxed, so much for big jock changes.

Shackleford stretched out nicely and may build on that.

GP R10 --- 7,1,8,2

Hutcheson---

Crossbow may be scratched from this.
Travlin Man ran a big number in his only start but is bred to go long. Manicero is on a roll and loves the distance so I can't fault him until he gets beat. Madman Diaries has already run well against graded company and may be able to get up late here.

GP  R9 --- 3,9,2,8,

Good Luck,
Backstretch

Triple Crown Trail

   I have neglected this blog because I have been extremely busy. In addition e-bettors doesn't like the idea of me posting a link to my blog because they seem to think I'm trying to lure people away from their website. They said I should post my derby stuff on their website. I feel that their policy of not having members contact one another stifles any interaction I might have with those who wish to ask PRIVATE questions. At any rate, I'm finished over there.
   I have been working on my list and this past monday one of my top picks won the Rebel at 15/1.

Here are my top picks for the TC in alphabetical order:

Alternation
Anthony's Cross
Archarcharch
Brethren
Dialed In
Jaycito
Mucho Macho Man
Stay Thirsty
Soldat
The Factor
To Honor And Serve
Uncle Mo
I will be adding or subtracting as the races progress.

Backstretch

Robert B. Lewis and Sam Davis

The derby preps are starting to warm up. It seems like most trainers are going to try to go with only two prep races which means a mad scramble for graded earnings. There's also going to be some dodging going on.
Trainers like Pletcher, Baffert and Dutrow have a lot of planning to do in order to keep their contenders separated.

Tapizar is the one to catch in the Robert Lewis, especially if that track continues to favor speed. Some work has been done to try and make the track more fair. I'm hoping the closers have some kind of shot in the race but that may be a lot to ask.

Here's how I see it;

Thirtyfirststreet
Tapizar
Wegner

Super Saver's brother is probably the one to beat in the Sam Davis but has not really been tested yet.

Monzon
Brethren
Adulare

Derby Pedigrees

   There are roughly 400 horses nominated to the derby. There will only be 20 that make it to the race so that means 95% will fall by the wayside.
   How can we begin to pick a derby horse now? I know that there are a lot of racing fans that like to enter contests or to place a bet in the future book.
   There are horses right now that are way under the radar but may make their presence felt later on. There are a few foreign horses that may or may not decide to enter the race.
   I am going to post my pedigree picks but this is being done without seeing most of their race records. As the preps move down the road we'll have a better idea as to who has ability and who doesn't.
   Reading pedigrees is very tedious and complex work. There are those on the web that have programs that give all kinds of pedigree stats. I do it manually so it takes me forever. There are however, indications in pedigrees that most pay no attention to. All I ever hear talked about is the sire and what the sire did, or how far the sire could run. The important thing to know is; can the sire pass his ability on to his offspring. I don't want to dwell on what I do because your probably only interested in the horses themselves.
   In this post I am listing a group that I feel the derby winner has a 60% chance of being one of this group. I say this because 7 of the last 11 derby winners had very similar pedigrees.
   I will be listing other contenders in the coming weeks but there's much work to be done. As I said, I don't how many of these will actually even make it to the races although I know some have run and won but I have no details as yet.

Listed in Alphabetical order:

Air Support                                             Metropolitan Man
Archarcharch                                           Never Right Joey
Arresting Officer                                      Pathfork
                                                               Rogue Romance
                                                               Shadow Warrier
                                                               Silverleo
                                                               Smash
                                                               Stay Thirsty Biondetti                                                  Travelin Man
Blue Right By                                           Utley
Buffalo Storm                                           Voodoo Storm
Casamento (Ire.)                                       Wegner
Clubhouse Ride                                        Why Pretend
Flashpoint                                                 Wilburn
Fredrik The Great                                      Willcox Inn
Gallant Dreams                                          Wine Police
Highest Regards                                         Zoffany (Ire.)
Industry Leader                                        
Joe Vann
Lauburu
Master Of Hounds
There are some more that belong on this list and I will update as soon as I find them.